Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes it could take well over a year for Bitcoin to recover its all-time high of $126,100, set in October of last year. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Brandt stated he does not expect a new price peak in 2026, pointing instead to the second quarter of 2027 as a possible timeframe. He was careful to note, however, that the forecast amounts to educated guesswork. Prediction platform Polymarket reflects similar skepticism, with traders assigning only a 15% probability that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 during 2026.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $66,329, representing a decline of roughly 3.46% over the prior seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. That places the cryptocurrency approximately 47% below its record high. Bitcoin touched a yearly low of $60,000 on February 6, though Brandt cautioned that figure may not represent the bottom for the year. He forecasts that Bitcoin could retest that level or move slightly beneath it around September or October before a new bull cycle begins.
Brandt described the anticipated trough as the bear cycle low, after which he expects a fresh upward phase to commence. Despite his near-term caution, his long-term view on Bitcoin remains intact. He characterizes Bitcoin’s core value proposition as a store of wealth and notes that whether utility applications are built on top of the network could influence its price trajectory. He added that he holds a neutral to bearish stance on all other cryptocurrencies.
Other market observers share a similarly measured outlook. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo wrote in a post on X on March 17 that, from a liquidity standpoint, Bitcoin is roughly one-third of the way through the current bear market. Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of investment firm SkyBridge, also stated last week that Bitcoin is currently in the bear portion of the four-year market cycle. Scaramucci suggested that widespread belief in the cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling prophecy among long-standing market participants.
Analysts remain divided on how Bitcoin will perform across 2026. The four-year cycle theory implies a weaker year is due, yet some observers argue that growing institutional demand has disrupted the historical pattern, potentially supporting an up year for the asset. The debate reflects broader uncertainty about whether traditional crypto market rhythms still apply given the evolving investor base.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added to the cautious mood after ending a four-week inflow streak, recording net outflows of $296.18 million for the week ending Friday. Sentiment gauges also reflect investor unease, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remaining in extreme fear territory since March 20 and posting a score of 8 on Monday. Ongoing geopolitical tensions are cited as a contributing factor to the subdued market mood.
Not all voices are pessimistic about the year ahead. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, said in January that he still anticipates Bitcoin setting a new all-time high in 2026, even after warning investors to prepare for a painful decline across both crypto and equity markets. His outlook stands in contrast to the more cautious projections offered by Brandt and others tracking the current cycle.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
