Bitcoin surged to a weekly high of $69,350 during early Asian and London trading on Monday, with the asset subsequently hovering around $69,245, a gain of roughly 3.5% on the day according to CoinGecko data. Broader financial markets also moved higher, with Nikkei futures advancing 0.85% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.64%. Oil, meanwhile, fell 1.4% from Friday’s close, while safe-haven gold remained near flat.
The catalyst behind the moves was a Reuters report indicating that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are in discussions over a potential 45-day ceasefire that could eventually lead to a permanent end to hostilities. According to the report, Pakistan has assembled a potential framework for ending the conflict, with all parties required to reach agreement by Monday. The arrangement would be formalized as a memorandum of understanding communicated electronically through Pakistan, which is serving as the sole channel for the negotiations.
The ceasefire reports came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump posted a combative message on TruthSocial on Sunday, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges and demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted, however, that it was the diplomatic developments rather than Trump’s remarks that drove market gains. Ekko An, an analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, told Decrypt that markets have largely stopped treating Trump’s statements at face value given his history of making declarations without substantive follow-through. According to An, traders are now weighing his comments alongside external action signals before adjusting positions.
A sharp liquidation of short positions added further upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Over $200 million in crypto short positions were wiped out within 24 hours — roughly four times the volume of long liquidations — according to CoinGlass data. Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, described the dynamic as a textbook short squeeze, noting that with market sentiment already deep in extreme fear territory, conditions were ripe for a reversal.
Lim also pointed to the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF by Morgan Stanley on April 8 as a contributing factor. The product undercut BlackRock IBIT‘s 0.25% fee with an expense ratio of just 0.14%, adding another layer of positive sentiment to the market. Together, these developments created a confluence of bullish signals that amplified the price move.
Despite the optimism, analysts caution that the Strait of Hormuz remains a key structural risk. Lim outlined a potential chain reaction should the waterway fully reopen: a collapse in the oil risk premium would pull forward rate cut expectations, which in turn would re-lever the broader risk curve spanning equities and crypto. He warned, however, that a ceasefire pause without meaningful normalization in the Strait would likely produce only a short-lived headline rally, a pattern he said has repeated itself at least three times since late March.
Prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, reflects the cautious mood among retail participants. The probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire occurring in the first half of the year rose by more than 10 percentage points on the day, though it still sits at 45%. A separate market tracking whether more than 15 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz before May climbed nearly 7% to 60%. Myriad users currently assign a 46% chance that Bitcoin’s next major move will be a rally to $84,000, while crude oil is seen as having an 83% probability of rising to $120.
Both analysts who spoke to Decrypt acknowledged that a retest of $80,000 is plausible but depends heavily on the outcome of the ongoing talks. Should negotiations collapse or a ceasefire fail to materialize, they warned that Bitcoin could retreat to the $60,000 level.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
