Perpetual futures contracts tied to real-world commodities such as oil and precious metals have seen a sharp rise in trading activity on the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange, according to a report published Thursday by digital asset bank Sygnum. Oil and precious metals perpetuals now represent more than 67% of all HIP-3, or Builder-Deployed Perpetuals, contract volume in the first quarter of 2026. This marks a significant shift from earlier patterns, when index-linked contracts dominated the same category with roughly 90% of activity, a share that has since fallen to approximately 17%.
Weekend trading activity for HIP-3 contracts has increased by approximately nine times since January 2026. Sygnum attributes this surge to crypto-native traders moving into traditional asset exposure as the broader altcoin market continues to underperform. The report frames the trend as a rotation rather than a temporary fluctuation.
Lucas Schweiger, digital asset ecosystem research lead at Sygnum, told Cointelegraph that the shift is further supported by a 250% year-over-year increase in the market capitalization of tokenized real-world assets. Approximately $23 billion in tokenized real-world assets are currently traded on permissionless blockchain networks, according to Schweiger. He also noted that traders have begun treating altcoins as leveraged proxies for Bitcoin rather than independent investment vehicles.
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has disrupted critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East, pushing global oil prices to a high of around $120 per barrel. Many altcoins, by contrast, are already trading 80% to 90% below their all-time highs, according to Sygnum. The divergence between commodity price strength and altcoin weakness appears to be a key driver of the observed rotation.
Oil prices have fluctuated considerably since the conflict began on February 28, responding to statements from US President Donald Trump, the Iranian government, and ongoing geopolitical developments. Market analyst and Coinbureau founder Nic Puckrin warned that if oil remains above $100 per barrel through 2026, it could trigger a spike in inflation. Such an outcome would likely undermine expectations for further interest rate cuts during the year.
Puckrin cautioned that traders currently pricing in a de-escalation or swift resolution to the conflict may face a difficult adjustment if the crisis continues. Elevated inflation stemming from sustained high oil prices could derail monetary easing plans and weigh on broader risk assets. The warning reflects growing concern that markets may not be fully accounting for a prolonged geopolitical disruption.
Since the conflict began, the probability of a US recession has climbed to 36% on the Polymarket prediction market platform. Ratings agency Moody’s has placed the likelihood of the US economy entering a recession in 2026 at nearly 50%. These figures underscore the broader macroeconomic uncertainty that appears to be reshaping trader preferences toward commodity-linked digital assets.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
