Bitcoin is holding near $68,000 despite mounting pressure across global financial markets, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbs to approximately 4.42%. That represents a rise of roughly 46 basis points since late February, a pace analysts are comparing to the volatility seen during the so-called Liberation Day period in April 2025. The cryptocurrency is down 3.3% on the day to $68,400, but remains up 3.9% since the current conflict with Iran began. Bitcoin has largely traded between $68,000 and $71,000 over the past month, declining less sharply than equities.
Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter noted on Thursday that while the current surge in Treasury yields mirrors the April 2025 episode, the broader backdrop is now considerably more complex. Writing on X, they cautioned that containing the bond market is not straightforward and suggested the situation would soon become the market’s dominant story. Movements in bond yields carry wide implications because they influence borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate loans, and frequently set the tone for risk assets including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The month-long rise in yields has been driven in part by elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran approaches its fifth week following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Higher energy prices tend to feed into inflation, prompting bond investors to demand greater yields to offset the erosion of purchasing power. That repricing has led investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates more broadly.
Interest-rate futures markets now reflect expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated for longer, a notable shift from late 2025 when markets were pricing in multiple rate cuts through 2026. Higher rates typically weigh on risk assets by increasing financing costs and making safer instruments such as government bonds more attractive by comparison. This dynamic has placed both equities and cryptocurrencies under pressure in recent weeks.
Despite the challenging macro environment, digital-asset trading firm QCP Capital said in a market note Thursday that Bitcoin’s price action remains range-bound and headline-driven. Options markets are showing continued demand for downside hedging, though not at levels that suggest extreme stress. In practical terms, investors are paying for protection against further declines, but markets are not yet pricing in a severe selloff.
There are also indications that some market participants are accumulating Bitcoin during price dips. Recent net outflows from exchanges suggest coins are being moved into storage rather than positioned for immediate sale, according to QCP Capital. Additionally, Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market has been rising, a signal that investors are favoring the world’s largest cryptocurrency during periods of uncertainty.
Traders are now closely watching the bond market for directional cues. Should the 10-year Treasury yield continue rising toward the 4.5% level, financial conditions would likely tighten further, increasing pressure on both equities and major cryptocurrencies. Analysts suggest that under such conditions, Bitcoin’s price movements would be driven less by crypto-specific developments and more by broader macroeconomic forces.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
