Advances in quantum computing could eventually undermine Bitcoin‘s cryptographic foundations, but the threat remains manageable and is unlikely to cause existential disruption to the network, according to a new report from Bernstein. The research team — Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia, and Harsh Misra — characterizes the situation as a “manageable upgrade cycle” rather than an “existential risk.” Their assessment comes amid growing attention to the long-term security implications of quantum technology for digital assets.
Recent breakthroughs, including research from Google demonstrating a significant reduction in the resources needed to break modern encryption, have brought the potential threat timeline closer. Despite this progress, building quantum computers capable of compromising Bitcoin remains years away due to substantial technical hurdles and high costs. Bernstein estimates the crypto industry has approximately three to five years to prepare and transition toward quantum-resistant cryptographic standards.
Quantum computing differs from classical computing through its use of “qubits,” which can encode multiple states at the same time. This property enables algorithms that could, in principle, break widely used encryption methods, including those that protect Bitcoin wallets. However, the report notes that the risk is not uniform across the entire network.
According to Bernstein, vulnerabilities are concentrated primarily in older Bitcoin wallets and addresses that reuse public keys, as these are more exposed to potential quantum attacks. Newer wallet formats and practices such as avoiding address reuse substantially reduce exposure. Bitcoin’s mining process, which relies on SHA-256 hashing, is not considered meaningfully vulnerable to quantum computing breakthroughs.
The report identifies specific Bitcoin address types as carrying the greatest quantum risk, namely pay-to-public-key (P2PK), pay-to-multisig (P2MS), and pay-to-Taproot (P2TR) formats. The concern is especially pronounced for older legacy wallets, where public keys are permanently exposed. Roughly 1.7 million Bitcoin are held in early P2PK addresses, including an estimated 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Any protocol-level response to quantum threats would likely be managed by Bitcoin’s open-source developer community and core contributors, who propose and implement upgrades through a consensus-based process. The structured nature of this process means that a coordinated transition to quantum-resistant standards is considered feasible within the available timeframe. Bernstein’s framing suggests the industry has sufficient runway to act before the threat becomes critical.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
