Bitcoin has spent roughly a month trading sideways after retreating from a recent peak above $75,000, with the leading cryptocurrency’s price action reflecting a cautious broader market. Data from CoinGecko shows the asset dipped to a weekly low of $68,500, underscoring the choppy conditions currently gripping the market. Sentiment was further weighed down by $177 million in outflows from crypto-sector exchange-traded funds recorded the previous week.
Despite the near-term turbulence, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience over a longer time frame. Since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28, the asset has significantly outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 index. Analysts attribute this relative strength to several rounds of deleveraging that occurred following Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
Richard Usher, director of trading at financial infrastructure provider OpenPayd, told Decrypt that Bitcoin’s ability to hold its ground amid geopolitical escalations is an encouraging sign. He acknowledged that a prolonged conflict poses a risk to sentiment across all risk assets, but said his base case is that neither party wants or can sustain a drawn-out confrontation. On that basis, he said he remains cautiously optimistic heading into the second quarter.
Ignacio Aguirre Franco, chief marketing officer of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, shared a similar outlook. He suggested that a stabilization in macroeconomic conditions, even in the absence of a specific bullish catalyst, could be sufficient to push the market into a recovery phase during the second quarter. His comments reflect a broader view among analysts that external conditions, rather than crypto-specific developments, may determine the market’s near-term direction.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, pointed to the $80,000 level as a potential turning point for the wider digital asset market. He described a recovery beyond that threshold as a key inflection point that could trigger a rotation of capital into Ethereum, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies. Altcoins remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s price movements and volatility, meaning a sustained Bitcoin rally would likely lift the broader market.
At the start of the week, Bitcoin briefly spiked to an intraday high above $71,000 following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of productive conversations with Iran and a five-day pause on planned strikes against the country’s energy infrastructure. Ethereum and XRP also rose alongside Bitcoin in response to the news, though all three assets remain in negative territory for the week. The development injected a degree of optimism into the market after days of subdued trading.
The geopolitical update also shifted sentiment on prediction platform Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 before falling to $55,000 rose by 9 percentage points following the announcement. Separately, Myriad users placed a 20.7% probability on a U.S.-Iran cease-fire being reached, up from 12.8% earlier the same day.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
