Bitcoin is trading near $66,000 as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly shifts focus toward winding down the military campaign against Iran. According to administration officials cited by The Wall Street Journal, Trump is prepared to end hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The administration’s stated priority is to degrade Iran’s naval and missile capabilities while applying diplomatic pressure on Tehran to restore free trade through the waterway. Should that approach fail, Washington would look to European and Gulf allies to take the lead on reopening the strategic chokepoint.
At a White House press briefing on Monday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that ensuring safe passage for oil tankers through the strait is not among the campaign’s core objectives. Separately, Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to target Iran’s energy infrastructure and potentially its desalination plants if the strait is not open for business following what he described as serious discussions with the Iranian regime. The combination of signals reflects a posture of pressure rather than a commitment to prolonged conflict, according to analysts.
Erik Amirbai Lang, co-founder of cryptocurrency project N4T, told Decrypt that Trump’s shift aligns with his broader strategic approach from the outset. Lang argued that the president’s reluctance to accept U.S. casualties and his preference for deal-making over military escalation were evident early on. Economic costs, risks to global markets, and limited domestic support further constrained deeper involvement. Initial military actions were aimed at demonstrating strength to reduce the need for further escalation, he added.
Financial markets registered immediate gains following news of the potential pivot but have since retreated. Bitcoin has remained comparatively stable, holding close to $66,000, which represents the lower boundary of a consolidation range it has maintained for nearly two months. The cryptocurrency is currently priced at approximately $66,600, down around 1.6% over the past 24 hours and roughly 7% over the past week, according to data from price aggregator CoinGecko. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place a 61% probability on Bitcoin’s next significant move taking it to $55,000 rather than $84,000.
Despite signs of potential geopolitical easing, oil prices have risen 48% since the conflict began, stoking inflation concerns. Markets have assigned a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting on April 29, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The elevated oil prices and rate expectations continue to weigh on broader risk sentiment even as diplomatic signals improve.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt that a rapid de-escalation of the Middle East conflict could unlock a strong risk-on rally across crypto markets. In that scenario, Bitcoin could push above $90,000, while Ethereum could retest the $2,700 to $2,800 range, she said. However, Zhang cautioned that even a resolution to the conflict would be unlikely to trigger a sustained Bitcoin bull run without consistent institutional capital flows and greater regulatory clarity.
Sentiment on Myriad remains cautious regarding the broader geopolitical outlook, with users assigning only a 3% probability to a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran occurring before April. The gap between diplomatic signals and market expectations underscores the uncertainty still surrounding the conflict’s trajectory. Analysts and traders appear to be waiting for more concrete developments before repositioning significantly in either direction.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
