A group of suspected insider traders collectively earned more than $600,000 on the prediction market platform Polymarket on Tuesday, following Trump‘s conditional ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran. The finding was reported by on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps, which identified a cluster of accounts it believes are linked. The same cluster had previously earned $1.2 million on markets tied to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in late February.
Three accounts — now bearing the handles “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj” — were identified by Bubblemaps as part of the profitable group. Together, they netted approximately $611,000 on Tuesday, primarily through contracts wagering that a ceasefire would occur before April 7 and April 15. The accounts were not uniformly successful, however, losing just under $50,000 on bets that a ceasefire would happen before March 31.
A representative for Bubblemaps told Decrypt that the cluster has been placing and winning bets on military-related markets since 2024, using a mix of recently created and older accounts. The representative noted that the accounts had “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.” Despite the pattern, Bubblemaps stopped short of definitively labeling the traders as insiders, acknowledging that large, well-timed bets alone do not confirm access to privileged information.
“People can only wager the capital they have. We don’t know the income or net worth of individuals trading on Polymarket,” the Bubblemaps representative said. The firm also noted publicly that the accounts’ win rate on ceasefire markets is not perfect. Still, it suggested the traders “may have access to better information than most,” given their track record on surprise military events.
The episode arrives amid growing scrutiny of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, particularly involving individuals connected to the Trump administration. California Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed an executive order barring political appointees and their associates from profiting on prediction markets using non-public information, citing what he described as widespread ethical failures in Washington.
Prediction market platforms have also taken steps to address the issue. Both Polymarket and Kalshi announced measures last month to strengthen their responses to insider trading, with Kalshi introducing preemptive screening designed to proactively prohibit politicians from trading on markets directly related to their own actions or decisions. These moves reflect increasing pressure on the industry to self-regulate as the platforms grow in prominence.
This is not the first high-profile insider trading controversy to hit prediction markets in recent months. In January, a trader earned more than $430,000 on Polymarket by placing well-timed bets on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, drawing significant attention. Shortly after, two Israelis were arrested and charged with using military secrets to generate profits on the platform. Last month, Kalshi fined and suspended a video editor working for YouTube personality MrBeast, who had used inside knowledge to profit on markets; the editor was subsequently fired by Beast Industries following an internal investigation.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
