Three newly created blockchain wallets generated a combined $484,575 in profits on the prediction platform Polymarket by wagering that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire agreement by April 7, raising fresh concerns about insider trading in prediction markets. On-chain data published by analytics service Lookonchain on Wednesday revealed that all three wallets were created and funded on Tuesday and had no prior on-chain activity before placing their bets. The individual profits recorded at the time of reporting were $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450 respectively.
The wagers were placed on the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market at implied probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%, meaning the bettors stood to gain substantially if the low-probability outcome materialized. One of the traders placed their first bet at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours before US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire agreement in a post on Truth Social at 10:32 pm UTC. The remaining two traders entered the market at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday.
The bets were settled after both the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday. Neither side has ruled out the possibility of further military action, leaving the broader geopolitical situation unresolved. The timing of the wagers relative to the public announcement has drawn significant scrutiny from observers in the crypto and prediction market communities.
The incident is the latest in a series of events that have prompted concern over insider trading on prediction platforms. In January, US lawmakers introduced a bill aimed at restricting government officials from trading on prediction market platforms, following a case in which a single Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 on a market tied to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being captured by US forces. That outcome also raised suspicions of insider knowledge among market participants and regulators.
In February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran in June 2025. One of those arrested was a member of Israel’s military, adding a national security dimension to the growing concerns about how sensitive information may be exploited on these platforms.
Prediction markets have emerged as one of the fastest-growing applications for cryptocurrency, with monthly trading volumes consistently exceeding $10 billion. However, the rapid growth has attracted scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators worldwide, who have raised alarms about market manipulation and the potential for privileged information to distort outcomes. Both Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi have introduced internal measures to identify and deter such activity.
In February, Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a partnership with crypto trading surveillance firm Solidus Labs to detect, investigate, and address market abuse. Whether these measures will prove sufficient to satisfy regulators and restore confidence in the integrity of prediction markets remains an open question as scrutiny of the sector continues to intensify.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
