Prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of the United States invading Iran this year rising to 63% following social media comments from President Donald Trump. Despite the increase, the figure remains below the peak of 68% recorded on March 29, which was driven by a US troop buildup in the region and reports that the Trump administration had considered seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil shipping hub. Trading volume on the invasion prediction market stood at approximately $3.74 million at the time of publication.
Earlier in the week, Trump signaled that the US might exit the conflict within two to three weeks, a statement that briefly lifted financial markets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose around 2.6% and the S&P 500 index gained roughly 2.91% following those remarks. However, Trump reversed his tone with his latest Sunday post, sending mixed signals to investors once again.
Following Trump’s Sunday comments, Bitcoin showed little reaction, trading up less than 0.1% over the prior 24 hours and remaining near the $67,500 level, according to data from TradingView. The muted response reflects the broader uncertainty gripping financial markets as participants struggle to assess the trajectory of the conflict. Risk assets across the board continue to be affected by the administration’s shifting statements.
Market analysts, traders, and economists are working to forecast the economic consequences of the ongoing situation, with the contradictory signals from the White House complicating those efforts. The lack of a clear policy direction has kept investor sentiment unstable. Each new statement from the administration appears to trigger fresh volatility across asset classes.
Economist Peter Schiff criticized Trump’s approach in a public response to the president’s comments. Schiff argued that threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure creates a no-win scenario, saying that backing down would undermine Trump’s negotiating credibility. He added that following through would escalate the conflict, damage the standing of the US internationally, generate sympathy for Iran, and intensify anti-American sentiment within the country.
Podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack also weighed in, expressing surprise at Trump’s statement and describing it as unexpected. His reaction reflected a broader sense of disbelief among some observers regarding the tone and content of the president’s remarks. The comments have drawn attention from voices across the financial and media landscape.
Brent crude oil, the primary international benchmark for spot oil pricing, remains elevated and closed Thursday above $109 per barrel. Trading was set to resume on Monday following the Easter holiday weekend. The sustained high price of oil underscores the market’s ongoing concern about potential disruptions to energy supply in the region.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
