Polymarket has removed a prediction market that asked users to bet on whether a US pilot reportedly shot down over Iran would be rescued, following significant public criticism. The platform stated the listing violated its integrity standards and should never have been published. The company said it is now reviewing how the market passed its internal review process, though it did not identify which specific rule had been breached.
The market had attracted considerable attention before its removal, with more than 60% of participants betting that US authorities would not confirm the pilot’s rescue by Saturday. US Representative Seth Moulton was among the most vocal critics, describing the market as ‘disgusting.’ Moulton argued that wagering on the fate of a potentially injured service member was deeply inappropriate, writing that the individual ‘could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member’ and questioning why people would bet on whether they would be saved.
Despite Polymarket’s explanation, the removal prompted further scrutiny from observers who found the company’s reasoning vague. Jack Newsham, a correspondent at Business Insider, wrote on X that he had reviewed both the platform’s Market Integrity page and its terms of service but could not identify which prohibition applied to the removed listing. The lack of specificity from Polymarket left some users and commentators unsatisfied with the company’s response.
The incident comes as Polymarket has been expanding its operations and revenue model. The platform broadened its fee structure on March 30, resulting in daily fees rising from approximately $363,000 to over $1 million, with revenue approaching $1 million at its peak. The growth has been driven by wider taker fees applied across categories including finance, politics, and technology as the company increases its monetization efforts.
Separately, prediction markets have faced growing scrutiny over potential insider trading. Last month, reports emerged that a group of traders earned roughly $1 million by correctly betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran, with some trades placed just hours before the attacks occurred. The activity involved newly created wallets that focused almost exclusively on strike-related markets, raising concerns about the use of non-public information.
In response to these broader concerns, at least 42 Democratic lawmakers have called on the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics to warn federal employees against trading on prediction markets using information not available to the public. The appeal reflects mounting unease among legislators about the potential for abuse within the rapidly growing prediction market sector.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
