The prospect of replacing a full-time salary by trading on prediction markets is out of reach for the vast majority of participants, according to new data from crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov. His findings, published on Monday, show that while close to 1% of Polymarket traders earned more than $5,000 in a single month, only 0.1% repeated that performance the following month. Just 0.015% managed to sustain earnings at that level for four consecutive months. For context, the average monthly salary in the United States sits at around $5,220, according to Consumer Shield.
Prediction markets have emerged as one of the most prominent use cases in crypto, allowing participants to wager on outcomes spanning politics, sports, financial results, and cultural events. Most platforms operate using binary shares priced between $0 and $1, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of a given outcome. Traders can generate returns by purchasing undervalued shares and selling them at higher prices, or by holding shares in winning outcomes that settle at $1 once an event concludes.
Sergeenkov’s analysis was published alongside coverage of Logan Sudeith, a former financial risk analyst who left his job to trade prediction markets full-time and reported $100,000 in profits during December. The analyst also referenced a post on X from former Messari analyst known as Tulip King, who claimed in November that Polymarket represented the easiest place in crypto to earn six figures at that time. These high-profile cases, Sergeenkov’s data suggests, are far from representative of the broader trading population.
According to the research, only 840 wallets — approximately 0.033% of all Polymarket traders — have recorded profits exceeding $100,000. Sergeenkov also cautioned that not all of these accounts belong to individual retail traders, as professional traders operating through hedge funds and other institutional firms are also active on the platform. He noted that less experienced users tend to trade with considerably less success than their more seasoned counterparts.
Even among the platform’s top earners, longevity is rare. Of the 6,600 wallet addresses that averaged monthly profits above $5,000, only 172 remained active for more than a year. That figure represents just 2.6% of that already small group. Sergeenkov described the pattern as one where most traders appear briefly, participate for a short period, and then exit the market entirely.
The analysis does carry certain limitations. Sergeenkov noted that his methodology only accounted for realized profits and losses, though he stated that 96% of trading volume on the platform derives from markets that have already been resolved. The dataset covers activity from April 2024 through April 1, 2026, providing a roughly two-year window into trader behavior and outcomes on the platform.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
